November 8, 2016, - 8:21 pm
Predictions: Trump Will Lose Michigan (Very Close) & The Whole Enchilada; Here’s Why . . .
Today, I proudly voted for Donald Trump. But, sadly, as a nearly lifelong Michigan resident, I predict that–while it will be close–Donald Trump will lose Michigan. However, there are some good signs, which could change things, and I discuss those below. I also think Trump will lose the “whole enchilada” (am I still allowed to say that, my “bad hombre” friends?). I also think it will be much closer than predicted by the Hillarybots. And here’s why . . . .
Michigan: Hillary needs Michigan to win. Trump doesn’t. And he’s come pretty damned close to taking it away from her. He’s done a great job and is to be commended, as is his campaign team and family for what they did here. Michigan is called a “blue” state, but that’s only for the Presidency. We have a Republican Governor as well as both the House and Senate in our State Legislature (even if all of ’em are complete RINOs).
This is the first time in decades and certainly in my recent memory that Michigan has been at all in play. And I give Donald Trump for moving it into the toss-up column, something neither Mitt Romney nor John McCain (nor even George W. Bush) were able to do. Trump was smart to flood Michigan with himself, his family, and Mike Pence for the last 10 days. By doing that, not only did he keep Michigan in play, but he tweaked the Hillary people (getting them to show that they would even grovel to Hezbollah for votes) and messed with the Clinton game plan. Believe me, Barack Obama was pissed he had to trek to Michigan and troll and butt-snorkel University of Michigan students (and schmuck Obama-fan, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh) for votes.
The good signs: If you go beyond the population-and-vote-rich Oakland and Wayne counties, Trump signs are everywhere “outstate.” Trump is huge in Macomb County–Michigan’s third most-populated county, and he will win there. Macomb County used to be called “Reagan Country” and was considered a bellwether county. As it voted, so went the nation. But no longer. Macomb went for Obama the last two elections, as it’s become overrun by minorities and many Muslim immigrants from the Middle East. And the Reagan Democrats who used to live there have aged, moved to Florida for retirement or otherwise relocated. It’s still more conservative than not. But it’s not the place it used to be. More and more mosques pop up there, every year.
The question–since Trump leads in Macomb and outside Oakland and Macomb Counties–was always: are there enough votes for Trump outside Oakland and Wayne (the county which contains Detroit and Muslim Dearbornistan and Dearbornistan Heights) to beat out those two latter counties, which will overwhelmingly go for Hillary? Before last week, I said definitely no. But absentee ballot requests in Detroit were down 30% over the same time last week in 2012. And out of over 50,000 absentee ballots requested, just over 35,000 had been returned. In 2012, it was more than 81,000. That’s bad for Hillary, since Detroit goes more than 80% for Hillary. In 2012, four precincts in Detroit didn’t have a single vote for Romney. Today, Detroit media was reporting at about 5:30 p.m. Eastern that turnout was low and only about 20%. Since the polls were scheduled to close at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, I doubt there was enough voting to catch up to 2012 levels. Again, bad for Hillary. Good for Trump.
The bad signs: At my polling place, which is in a mostly Black neighborhood, I had to wait in a long line for the first time ever. I always vote at about just after 10:00 a.m. and it is usually empty. Not this time. I was voter #355. I was told this is much higher than at the same time in the day in 2008 and 2012. However, there are also a lot of White Orthodox Jews from my neighborhood. And like me, they voted mostly for Trump. They are dwarfed, however, by the number of Blacks that live in my neighborhood and who dominated the lines at the polling place where I voted. Bad for Trump. Good for Hillary.
As I noted, I don’t ever remember Michigan being in play since 1988 when George H.W. Bush ran for the first time and won. As you’ll recall, John McCain pulled up stakes in September 2008 and basically gave up on Michigan, leaving Obama to spend his resources elsewhere. That Hillary couldn’t do that is a good sign. Trump awakened a sleeping force here like no one else could or ever did since Reagan. But Michigan has changed significantly since the Reagan Revolution. It has many more minorities (Blacks and Hispanics), many more Muslims, and fewer White working-class Reagan Democrat voters.
I think it’s gonna be close. But I believe Hillary will still pull it out. I hope I’m wrong. And it’s going to be much closer here than I ever expected.
Nationally: I don’t think Trump will win for the following reasons:
1) Trump’s ground game: Hillary Clinton had 20-25 get-out-the-vote workers for every one that Trump had. The GOP just didn’t help him that much.
Hillary’s ground game: Take the Obama ground game–which was down to a science; down to each likely Obama voter and whether or not he or show voted yet and/or needed a ride to the polls–and perfect it by a few years. That’s what her organization has. And Trump simply wasn’t as organized or even close.
2) Poll-watching and fraud: Donald Trump was still asking for and recruiting poll-watchers as late as the end of last week He can’t rely on the GOP to help him in this regard because the GOP signed a boneheaded consent decree in a court case decades ago, agreeing not to challenge questionable voters (I’ll write more about that in a separate post). So Trump was screwed on this and anything goes at these minority and inner city polling places. Ditto for other polling places where liberals (who tend to comprise the poll worker population) are running the show.
Hillary is well-stocked with poll watchers and the DNC army of lawyers and eager supporters are helping out their poll-watching and vote-challenge efforts.
We know that over 200 dead voters cast absentee ballots and/or voted in the Los Angeles area in this election, according to CBS News. That’s just there. Imagine how that translates incrementally to a vote tally across the country. These things add up and, yes, they can and do decide elections. Think about it: John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon in 1960 by less than two votes per precincts.
I think a lot of dead people and illegal aliens are voting for Hillary all over the country. We know Obama encouraged the illegals to do so. And Trump has nobody to challenge most of them.
3) Never-Trumper Traitors: we know that some GOP-ers and faux-conservatives are supporting Hillary. They are frauds and Benedict Arnolds. They should NEVER be forgiven. NEVER EVER. Especially schmucks like John Kasich, the entire, entirely worthless, ungrateful Bush Family of pigs, that complete ahole Bill Kristol, the bleeping, effeminate Lindsey Graham, on Podhoretz, Glenn Beck, Michael Medved, Ana Navarro, Ben Shapiro, David Frum, and many other unworthy frauds. But Trump needed every faux-conservative vote. And he won’t get them. Thankfully, many never Trumpers woke up and changed their minds today. But there are enough to make a dent. Evan McMullin–whom I call, Eggen McMuffin, cuz that’s about all he is to me–may take Utah and hurt Trump irreparably. I don’t think it will happen. But the guy deserves to be dropped into a snake pit.
It’s for all of these reasons (and a few more) that I think Trump will lose Michigan and the Presidency tonight. But I hope I’m wrong.
My insightful, former-officeholder friend, Dennis, thinks Trump will pull it out and win here. Stranger things have happened: Bernie Sanders defied the polls here and beat Hillary. And when I was general counsel of the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative (to end affirmative action), polls showed us losing by two-to-one. But we won by about 60-40, a virtual landslide. There may be a Bradley Effect here (where people lie to pollsters because of embarrassment and un-PC-ness). I hope there is.
Those are my predictions and reasoning. Why do you think will happen and why?
All valid points, but the images of Trump crowds filling stadiums contrasted with the images of Hillary crowds filling hallways is too strong, in my mind, to dismiss. The election comes down to the degree of election fraud perpetrated by the Clinton machine.
YCHtT on November 8, 2016 at 10:21 pm